← Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.7% | -11.4 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ashwick Cremator | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scorching Imperilment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisonous Apple | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scathing Seminary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |